Why We Went to War: A Theory

We all know by now that the WMD claim has turned out to be bullshit. Not that certain people at certain times didn't wholeheartedly believe the argument, but given the lack of true, substantiated, on-the-ground evidence since the invasion, the bulk of the argument was invented out of whole cloth (probably at the insistence the Veep's office in the halls of Langley). So why did we go?

There are a number of arguments that make sense, but individually don't seem to carry enough weight to be convincing enough to bring us to war:

• We were threatened by WMDs. Even just months prior to the war, Colin Powell and Condoleeza Rice were debunking this one.
• "Saddam threatened my daddy." Yes, Saddam allegedly tried to assassinate Bush Sr. And yes, GWB has that manly swagger that probably betrays inadequacies elsewhere. But I really doubt GWB, using only his authority and charm, was able to convince the people who run the USA to wage war based on an old grudge.
• We are trying to spread Democracy in the Middle East. Come on, people. This post-invasion canard doesn't jive with logic or history. You ever hear any Republicans criticize the humanitarian devastation caused by the ten years of sanctions? When did we suddenly get this altruistic change of heart?
• [Insert fringe conspiracy theory here.] I don't think we invaded to try and steal their oil. Or because of some Russian or Iranian or French weapons-trading conspiracy.
• Some combination of the above. None of the reasons above stand on their own merits. Even in combination, I don't believe they are reason enough to go to war.

So here's why I think we did it. The U.S. has had a long standing interest in keeping the Middle East stable, primarily due to the vast amount of oil under the sand. Prior to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, however, the U.S. couldn't get its feet on the ground in the Middle East other than in Israel. Since the 1967 war, especially, the situation in Israel had become increasingly tense, and consequently, our alliance with Israel more and more of a cause for concern. Well prior to 1990, we realized that we had all our Middle East eggs in one basket, so to speak. So when Iraq's tensions with Kuwait began to grow, the U.S. gave a wink and a nod to Hussein to go ahead with his invasion. That invasion gave us the pretense of going in and defending the small nation of Kuwait under an ostensibly altruistic cause. Because of this, the Saudis gave us unprecedented permission to set up bases on holy Muslim soil. Thus our footprint in the Middle East grew. And thus, the Bin Laden grudge was born.

Prior to September 11th, Osama Bin Laden's big gripe with the U.S. was those Saudi bases. According to Bin Laden, Saudi Arabia is holy soil and having infidels on the land violates Islamic principles. September 11th (a disgusting and reprehensible act, no doubt) convinced the world that he was serious. It also convinced the administration that our Saudi Arabian military footprint was quite a liability. We couldn't just withdraw from Saudi Arabia, however. For one thing, we'd be starting back at square one with all those eggs and that one basket. Secondly, the last thing Bush wanted to do was to follow his father's "wuss" legacy and bow to the demands of this shady character. The answer? Hey, we've been bombing Iraq for ten years now. We could convince the world that the threat from Iraq has escalated, bomb the shit out of them, and then quietly move our bases to a country the size of California that just happens to be dead in the heart of the Middle East. Problem solved. We increase our footprint, take away the Bin Laden grievance, and as a side benefit, we get rid of Saddam Hussein and set up a U.S.-friendly government in Iraq.

Of course, things didn't go as planned. The rest, as they say, is history.